Monday, September 26, 2011

Testing a theory

This afternoon, September 26th 2011, I am stating that there is a strong possibility of a moderate to severe earthquake occurring during the next few weeks.

Don't know where. The theory I've been developing ain't that refined yet.

However, I will note that during this past year I have made such "predictions" (though I'd rather find a better word for it) among friends, and every time there has been some significant seismic activity: from the Tokyo quake to the recent one that rattled us here on the East Coast.

We'll see what happens in the next month or so. And if something occurs geologically, I'll elaborate at greater length on this theory (which does seems to have some merit to it...)

6 comments:

Olivia said...

Bookmarked and watching with interest.

Anonymous said...

Erm, isn't the chance of a moderate to severe earthquake happening somewhere in the world pretty much always a safe bet?

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/qed/

Seems like they're happening all the time. Just sayin'...

Chris Knight said...

"Erm, isn't the chance of a moderate to severe earthquake happening somewhere in the world pretty much always a safe bet?"

Yes. But this theory is in regards to the frequency of severe earthquakes coinciding with particular factors. In the presence of those factors, the chances of significant seismic activity rise considerably.

I'm not saying that what I've been looking for does guarantee that major earthquakes happen. And if no big earthquakes happen, I'm fine with that (I'd rather that none happen at all!). That absence wouldn't absolutely prove or disprove the theory: it'd just be submitted along with all the other empirical evidence regarding it.

I'm trying to test a theory scientifically, not claiming that I'm a prophet :-)

Anonymous said...

Looking forward to hearing what your theories are, and hoping they aren't accurate in the case of your prediction! Or, if they are, that the temblors will happen in the middle of nowhere.

LeeB. said...

M. 5.1 in Tokyo earlier today and another M. 5.1 near Australia.

Chris Knight said...

Thanks. I'm wondering if the new one in Tokyo might be an aftershock from the big one earlier this year.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Testing a theory

This afternoon, September 26th 2011, I am stating that there is a strong possibility of a moderate to severe earthquake occurring during the next few weeks.

Don't know where. The theory I've been developing ain't that refined yet.

However, I will note that during this past year I have made such "predictions" (though I'd rather find a better word for it) among friends, and every time there has been some significant seismic activity: from the Tokyo quake to the recent one that rattled us here on the East Coast.

We'll see what happens in the next month or so. And if something occurs geologically, I'll elaborate at greater length on this theory (which does seems to have some merit to it...)

6 comments:

Olivia said...

Bookmarked and watching with interest.

Anonymous said...

Erm, isn't the chance of a moderate to severe earthquake happening somewhere in the world pretty much always a safe bet?

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/qed/

Seems like they're happening all the time. Just sayin'...

Chris Knight said...

"Erm, isn't the chance of a moderate to severe earthquake happening somewhere in the world pretty much always a safe bet?"

Yes. But this theory is in regards to the frequency of severe earthquakes coinciding with particular factors. In the presence of those factors, the chances of significant seismic activity rise considerably.

I'm not saying that what I've been looking for does guarantee that major earthquakes happen. And if no big earthquakes happen, I'm fine with that (I'd rather that none happen at all!). That absence wouldn't absolutely prove or disprove the theory: it'd just be submitted along with all the other empirical evidence regarding it.

I'm trying to test a theory scientifically, not claiming that I'm a prophet :-)

Anonymous said...

Looking forward to hearing what your theories are, and hoping they aren't accurate in the case of your prediction! Or, if they are, that the temblors will happen in the middle of nowhere.

LeeB. said...

M. 5.1 in Tokyo earlier today and another M. 5.1 near Australia.

Chris Knight said...

Thanks. I'm wondering if the new one in Tokyo might be an aftershock from the big one earlier this year.